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In South Africa, India has never prevailed in a men’s Test series. The fact that the only foreign teams to win here are England, Australia, and Sri Lanka won’t ease the Indians’ feelings about this setback, particularly given their perceived superiority in this era.
That may not be comfortable for the exceptionalisms to accept, but it is a fact. India has lost seven of the eight rubber matches they have played in South Africa. The closest they’ve gone to an exception was when they levelled the score at Kingsmead following South Africa’s victory in Centurion in December 2010 and January 2011. At Newlands, there was a tight stalemate.
India has only managed to win four of the 23 Test matches they have played in South Africa. The only countries with lower winning percentages than this one (17.39) are Australia, England, and Pakistan. The good news is that the next 13 days offer a great chance to twist the story’s arc, for both India’s sincere and reasonable supporters and exceptionalists alike.
Two Test series between India and South Africa were played in November 2001 and December 2013, respectively. However, given the bowlers Mohammed Siraj and Jasprit Bumrah have developed into, their assault in those rubbers did not shine. In the 2013 series, Mohammed Shami got six wickets at a rate of 43.83. It’s unfortunate that Shami’s ankle injury has prevented him from evaluating that progress in this rubber, especially given his development since then.
The bowling of India appears to be more dangerous than their batting. Shubman Gill’s 32.20 and Virat Kohli’s 49.29 are probably their top six averages. However, when viewed through the prism of South Africa, the image drastically shifts. Here, Gill, Shreyas Iyer, and Yashasvi Jaiswal have not yet played a Test match. In South Africa, Rohit Sharma’s career average of 46.54 drops by 31.17 points to 15.37. From 33.44 to 25.60, KL Rahul’s falls. The only hitter who is better in this nation than elsewhere is Virat Kohli, whose average of 51.35 in South Africa is third on his list after only Australia and India.
The weight of their own past will be felt by South Africans. They are not as good as they have been in previous home series versus India, especially with Dean Elgar’s 37.28 average being one of just three players’ scores above thirty. The average age of half of India’s likely top six is over forty.
The key will be to see how much Elgar’s mind is focused—or is not—by playing his final Test series. Furthermore important is the health of Kagiso Rabada and Lungi Ngidi, who are attempting to overcome ankle and heel problems, particularly on a pitch as fast as Centurion’s. Rabada is especially crucial to the cause since, with 60 caps, he is South Africa’s most experienced player, second only to Elgar.
It will be Temba Bavuma and Rohit Sharma’s first game together following their teams’ heartbreaking World Cup loss in India last month. For these proud captains, winning this series won’t make up for their disappointment. Most likely, nothing will. But to lose would be yet another devastating blow. They don’t deserve to suffer that much.
South Africa:
Lungi Ngidi and Kagiso Rabada are still questionable starters. David Bedingham, a former Kolpak player, appears to be making his debut. After being left out of the two home Test matches against the West Indies in February and March, Kyle Verreynne is back in the
Probable XI: Dean Elgar, Aiden Markram, Tony de Zorzi, Temba Bavuma (capt), David Bedingham, Kyle Verreynne, Marco Jansen, Keshav Maharaj, Gerald Coetzee, Kagiso Rabada, Lungi Ngidi
India:
Ruturaj Gaikwad, who suffered a finger injury, has been replaced in the squad by Abhimanyu Easwaran. After going back to India to take care of an unspecified personal matter, Virat Kohli has returned. Given that Mohammed Shami is sidelined due to an ankle injury, Prasidh Krishna may make his debut.
Possible XI: Rohit Sharma (capt), Yashasvi Jaiswal, Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul, Ravindra Jadeja, Shardul Thakur, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj, Prasidh Krishna